Research and Investigation into Anomalous Light Phenomena
on and over Lake Ontario, Ontario, Canada


Copyright © 1998 T. R. Dutton. CEng. MIMechE MRAeS

Formatting and layout of this page and tables
Copyright ©ORBWATCH (registered with C.I.P.O. No.466351)



A prolonged study of world-wide accounts of close encounters with unidentifiable aerial artifacts led, by synthesis, to the formulation of the:


The original data sample used to establish the Theory was drawn from the period 1885-1971. It was demonstrated that all the best close encounter (CE)events recorded during that period could have resulted from a highly programmed surveillance and exploration activity carried out from Space. In view of the advanced nature of the craft described by witnesses and the fact that many of the reports pre-dated our Space Age, the conclusions had to be drawn that the artifacts had not been man-made and had probably originated from extraterrestrial sources.

It is important to emphasise that the Theory evolved from data processing and was not contrived at outset.

A programmed strategy for the systemmatic surveillance of Earth seems to have been discovered. This involves the adoption of a well-defined set of approach paths to Earth from Space, which could result in craft orbiting the planet from those paths. The paths are inclined to the Equator at angles within a range of angles which guarantee full coverage of all the inhabited regions. Since the model was derived from events on or near to the Earth's surface, it was implied that the atmospheric craft had been delivered and would be retrieved by spacecraft following the programmed paths in Space.

Four well-used astro-navigational orientations of the "orbital" paths have been discovered, and these determine the local times of the CE EVENTS. Two of the orientations are related to the fixed stars. The other two are Sun-related and cross the terminator on opposite sides of the Earth's polar axis.

A further important discovery was that paths linking events geographically were, notionally, the paths of spacecraft orbiting the planet, in retrograde (East to West) motion at super-orbital speed.  The period (time for one revolution) of the "orbits" had been apparently constant throughout the entire period of 86 years.

Finally, it was observed that ground tracks often passed through fixed navigational marker points on the Equator. It was considered that this feature of the programming would serve to provide geographical reference points for the approaching spacecraft.

All this being so, the surveillance activity could be considered to be fully automated and capable of being executed by intelligent (robotic) probes. Furthermore, given these circumstances, it is to be expected that bases have been established within our Solar Sytem.


Since 1988, PC programmes have been developed to enable new data to be processed and to be checked for correlation with the timing predictions of the Theory. During this processing some features of the original model have been refined, removing most of the uncertainties which had remained during the initial, manual processing of data.

Programmes now exist to check, numerically, the timings of new UFO reports against the predictions of the model. The latest version of this series checks actual event times to within one minute of expectations.

Another important programmed produces a predicted-timings graph for any given geographical location. These graphs plot Standard Time against days of the year - and, provided the rules are not changed, they apply to any year. Related to the timings graph, a latitude/longitude grid map is produced to display the computed ground track lines serving the given location, and for which the timings lines have been calculated.

Since 1990, these programmes have been used extensively to check new data against the astronautical model. Currently, any event which occurs within +/- 20 minutes of a predicted time is considered to be further confirmation of the model, though doubt may remain in some circumstances.

Doubts arise then two or more track timings are found within the 20-minute boundaries; or when an event lies midway between two consecutive predictions.

The latter case requires further discussion.

The model suggests that the exploration craft are mostly visible on or soon after arrival from Space and, again, just prior to departure for a rendezvous in Space. It suggests that, between two consecutive timings, the craft operate unnoticed under the cover of darkness or, perhaps, may hide in seclusion until collection time arrives. Indeed, there is evidence that both these tactics are frequently used. But this generalisation may not be a rigidly enforced rule.

The occasional sighting of a craft between predicted timings does not necessarily invalidate the model or the report. The main consequence is that such an event cannot be used to positively validate the Theory.

Even with this constraint imposed, correlation with the predicted times is generally better than 70% for a typical sample of up to 50 investigated UFO reports - and for major CE events, it is better than 90%.

To date, some 840 additional reports have been processed. (There were over 400 reports in the initial sample which was used to establish the Theory.)

The computer-processed sample includes data from 1950 to the present day. Over 460 of the cases have been reported, to date, during the 1990's.

Given the high rates of correlation being achieved, it is now considered that the Astronautical Theory has been more than sufficiently validated. This has led to a study of world-wide tactics, the purpose of which will be to discover any additional rules governing the surveillance and exploration activities. This paper reports on current findings.


The exercise now being considered has been greatly facilitated by two developments. Firstly, a specialised (manual) compilation programme creates a listing of all qualifying processed events and provides limited sorting of the information.
Secondly, apparently reliable, worldwide information gathered from the Internet created, at times, a day-by-day database for 1996 and the first three months of 1997 (see Section 9.)

Before the observations to date are listed, it will be important to explain the processing involved and to define terms being used.

(a) Processing

As explained previously, there should be two tracks in Space related to each validated UFO event. For this reason the initial processing identifies all track options which produce timing predictions within +/- one hour of the reported time. Tracks with predictions earlier than actual are regarded as possible delivery tracks and those with later predictions as potential retrieval candidates. All essential details are printed out, giving time differences to the nearest minute in each case.

By examination of this initial output, the track options regarded as being the most likely ones are selected for manual inclusion in the compilation programme.
The compiled listing can then be sorted to discover any track similarities between events, for example, at different locations on the same date;  at the same location on different dates, and so on.

Using this technique, a number of important observations have been made about the tactics being favoured during spates of surveillance activity. These will be listed as promised but firstly, the terms being used will have to be defined.

(b) Terminology


Each track over the ground is associated with the use, in Space, of a particular approach path, or orbit.  The plane of each identified path or orbit is inclined relative to the Equator at any angle which is one of ten identified by the Theory.   Hence, every ground track is associated with, and governed by, one of these specified orbit inclinations.


This refers to the astro-navigational"fix" used to orientate a path or orbit in Space. It determines at what time of day or night an event can occur at a given location on a given date.


This is the name given to a fixed navigational point on the Equator which a track over the ground (and its associated orbit) passes through. It is the longitudinal position from which the track is generated northwestwards from the Equator as the spacecraft moves as if it were in orbit. It determines the locations which can be overflown from that path or orbit.


This is a term used to denote a single combination of INCLINATION, ORIENTATION and GENERATOR which defines the path or orbit adopted for a given mission.
Example: If the times of events occurring at widely separated places are found to relate to tracks with the same inclination, orientation and generator longitudes, then those two events are related by the same track option.


This is a term sometimes used to refer to a ground track with a given inclination and a given generator longitude which links two or more places geographically. But, the same track can have any of the four orientations in Space and these are different at the individual event locations when this term is used.



There appears to be no evidence that a single track option is used to link events in widely separated countries during the same activity period. Activity seems to be generally restricted to a targeted area in a selected country.

However, there are interesting alternative tactics used from time to time. These are outlined by Paragraph 4.2 below.


More than one country may be visited in the same short activity period by the adoption of one or more of the following tactics:-

(a)Same track with different orientations;

(b) Same inclination, same orientation, different generators

(c) Same generator, same orientation, different inclinations.

(d) Same inclination, different orientation, different generators.

(e) Different track options.

This is not a comprehensive list of the possibilities, but it contains all the wide-ranging global tactics which, currently, have been identified.  Whatever determines the choice from these combinations for each activity period has not yet become clear.


Several places in a given global area may be repeatedly visited by craft delivered/retrieved from spacecraft following the same track option.   The duration of the time slot at each site is determined by the choice of retrieval track option to serve that site.


During intense activity periods at a given location, particular combinations of track options appear to be favoured for both delivery and retrieval sequences. Frequently, the same track is used but its orientation is different for delivery and retrieval. In these circumstances, the activity period does not generally exceed 1.5 hours and this period is usually found to be the time between two consecutive predicted timings for that location. The combination of a star-orientated option with a Sun-orientated one is a common occurrence. There are numerous examples of this operational tactic, the use of which may be influenced by the relative closeness of the Sun to one of the two star-linked track orientations.


For the purpose of demonstrating the basis for each of the above observations, extracts from the sorted processed database will be presented. As output tabulations will be reproduced, it is important first to define the abbreviations used:-

is the inclination of the plane of the path or obrit in Space relative to the Earth's equatorial plane, and is given in degrees.

is the datum value of the celestial meridian, in hours, with which the path has been found to be associated by the local timing of an event. The values are 11.00 hrs or 21.30 hrs RA. A blank is displayed when the path in Space is otherwise orientated.

stands for 'terminator' and the column under this heading displays whether the path in Space has been found to be associated with either datum northern sunset (ss) or datum northern sunrise (sr.)
Both datum settings refer to the celestial meridians corresponding to sunset and sunrise at 53 degrees north latitude on the day of the events. (The reason for this preference is currently obscure.)

refers to the term 'Generator' previously defined.

denotes the 'continuous orbit' sequence with which the identified ground track can be associated.
Three such notional sequences were discovered and these are labelled 'a,'  'b' or 'c' in these tabulations.

If two different tracks in a given activity period are found to link two events separated by several hours - and those tracks are labelled with the same sequence identifier - then the two events could be the result of activities by the same orbiter continually orbiting the planet, albeit at super-orbital speed.

is the heading under which an abbreviated alphanumeric with only four characters is used to describe, as closely as possible, the UFO described by the witness(es.)

A list of the abbreviations, commonly used, is given below:

CE-1, CE-2, CE-3, CE-4 and CE-5 refer to
Close Encounters of the 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th and 5th Kinds respectively.

aclo: aircraft-like object (doing unusual things.)

airc: aircraft crash in mysterious circumstances, possibly UFO-related.

airo: an object seen from the air or interacting with an aircraft.

blko: black-coloured object which may, at night, blot out the stars.

bluo blue-coloured object or large light, often manoeuvring.

boxo: box-shaped object

cigr: cigar-shaped object.

cylo: cylindrical object.

diao: diamond-shaped object

disc: disc-shaped object.

exit: object disappearing rapidly skywards.

expl: mysterious loud explosion(s) covering a large area but with no obvious source. Suspected of being UFO-related for various reasons.

firb: fireball-like globe of light, sometimes slow-moving and manoeuvring.Colours vary.

glob: glowing ball or other object.

gond: a gondola-shaped craft.

grno: green-coloured object or large light, often maneouvring.

hovo: hovering object (no other details given.)

lits: light (or lights) in the sky, looking unusual or behaving unusually, sometimes as if attached to the unidentified craft.

ltis: denotes local standard time in decimal hours.

meto: meteoric object which was unusual.

mult: several craft-like objects seen together.

orgo: orange-coloured object or large light, often manoeuvring.

redo: red-coloured object or large light, often manoeuvring.

rndo: round object (no further details.)

satn: Saturn-shaped object.

sato: Satellite-like object (which may be seen to manoeuvre.)

sauc: refers to a classic, upturned saucer-shaped object.

silo: silver object (usually seen in daylight.)

trio: triangular object.

unkn: insufficient description given, for various reasons.

vdeo: means that the object was captured on video, and is permanently recorded.

wate: a water event. Objects seen entering or leaving reservoirs, lakes or seas.



Extracted examples will now be given to illustrate the tactics identified in Para. 4 above. Each subsection will be considered in turn, excluding 4.1, for which no evidence has been found to date.

Para. 4.2   Tactics linking different countries during a given time slot.

Section 4.2(a) SAME TRACK, different orientations.

dy  mth yr ltis Town Country Ctry tx RA tr Genr y Type
07 09 1996 23.50 nieuwe holland neth 63 ss 48.64 c disc
07 09 1996 17.00 las vegas nevada usa 63 2130 48.64 c multi

Section 4.2(b) Same inclination, same location, different generators.

dy  mth yr ltis Town Country Ctry tx RA tr Genr y Type
10 08 1996 21.00 guarabr paraib braz 58 sr 157.7 b trio
10 08 1996 21.00 gisborn n isld nz 58 sr 21.36 a diao
16 02 1997 02.33 adelaid s ausl ausl 44 2130 -0.45 c lits
16 02 1997 03.50 l de rap santi chil 44 2130 162.0 c cen3

Section 4.2(c) Same generator, same orientation, different inclinations.

dy  mth yr ltis Town Country Ctry tx RA tr Genr y Type
16 07 1997 11.50 chiviln santia chil 67 ss 135.9 a cigr
16 07 1997 00.08 brisban queens ausl 63 ss 135.9 a orgo
04 02 1997 18.25 grants c oregon usa 44 ss -48.0 c meto
04 02 1997 21.00 montaubn franc fran 44 1100 -175 a meto

Section 4.2(d) Different TRACK OPTIONS.

dy  mth yr ltis Town Country Ctry tx RA tr Genr y Type
22 05 1996 21.00 gladstn ausl ausl 76 sr -38.6 b lits
22 05 1996 23.00 ipswich queens ausl 67 2130 -22.3 b lits
22 05 1996 21.17 g breez flor usa 42 1100 44.1 a trio

Para. 4.3 Same TRACK OPTION repeatedly serving a targeted area.

Various examples of this tactic are listed below.

dy mth yr ltis Town Country Ctry tx RA tr Genr y Type
24 07 1993 18.5 bideford devon uk 63 1100 37.73 a cigr
13 04 1994 22.75 wellingtn somer uk 63 1100 37.73 a unkn
03 06 1994 21.50 kingsbrg devon uk 63 1100 37.73 a lits
04 06 1994 21.50 taunton somer uk 63 1100 37.73 a unkn
13 03 1995 02.75 lutton devon uk 63 1100 37.73 a cylo
20 10 1996 19.70 s luis val col usa 42 ss 44.1 a lits
20 10 1996 18.75 s luis val col usa 42 ss 44.1 a cigr
26 10 1996 18.67 s luis val col usa 42 ss 44.1 a lits
14 02 1997 22.25 melbourne vict ausl 42 sr 19.00 a disc
18 02 1997 21.50 melbourne vict ausl 42 sr 19.00 a orgo
21 02 1997 20.83 werribee vict ausl 42 sr 19.00 a redo
28 02 1997 21.17 yarra jn vict ausl 42 sr 19.00 a orgo
27 12 1987 20.25 gulf brz flor usa 42 ss -44.3 a cen1
07 02 1988 20.50 gulf brz flor usa 42 ss -44.3 a cen1
26 03 1988 21.50 gulf brz flor usa 42 ss -44.3 a lits
17 03 1988 22.17 gulf brz flor usa 42 ss -44.3 a cen1
20 03 1988 22.83 gulf brz flor usa 42 ss -44.3 a cen1

Para. 4.4 Favoured combinations of TRACK OPTIONS and SAME TRACKS with various orientations for delivery and retrieval of craft from targeted areas.

(a) Single mission TRACK OPTIONS.

dy  mth yr ltis Town Country Ctry tx RA tr Genr y Type
26 07 1993 03.13 gball hl wilts uk 53 sr -93.2 c blko
53 2130 -93.2 a blko
08 11 1993 18.00 islingtn london uk 53 2130 113.2 c satn
53 ss 74.80 b satn
23 06 1994 07.33 taunton somer uk 63 sr 37.73 a unkn
63 2130 37.73 a unkn
09 06 1996 02.50 leomstr mass usa 58 sr 79.00 c lits
58 2130 79.00 c lits
09 06 1996 02.50 london engld uk 54 2130 119.6 a yelo
53 sr 114.1 c yelo
24 12 1996 20.00 cincinna ohio usa 53 ss -44.1 a lits
53 2130 -44.1 a lits
09 02 1997 20.42 brisbne queens ausl 44 sr -0.45 c firb
10 02 1997 04.00 brisbne queens ausl 44 2130 -0.45 c oval

(b) Favoured SAME TRACKS with varied orientations.

dy  mth yr ltis Town Country Ctry tx RA tr Genr y Type
05 06 1994 01.50 s luis v col usa 76 ss -93.2 a lits
27 06 1994 22.00 s luis v col usa 76 1100 -93.2 a trio
03 07 1994 21.50 s luis v col usa 76 1100 -93.2 a orgo
07 07 1994 20.50 s luis v col usa 76 1100 -93.2 a firb
26 08 1994 00.52 s luis v col usa 76 ss -93.2 a redo
09 10 1994 22.25 s luis v col usa 76 ss -93.2 a firb
05 11 1994 13.00 s luis v col usa 76 1100 -93.2 a trio
06 11 1994 23.25 s luis v col usa 76 2130 -93.2 a trio
08 11 1994 22.00 s luis v col usa 76 ss -93.2 a lits
22 11 1994 21.15 s luis v col usa 76 ss -93.2 a trio
23 01 1995 22.00 s luis v col usa 76 ss -93.2 a lits
27 12 1987 20.25 gulf brz flor usa 42 ss -44.3 a cen1
09 12 1976 18.75 haverfwd dyfed uk 63 ss 38.20 a cen1
17 02 1977 10.50 haverfwd dyfed uk 63 sr 38.20 a cen1
13 03 1977 21.50 haverfwd dyfed uk 63 ss 38.20 a cen3
12 04 1977 22.00 haverfwd dyfed uk 63 ss 38.20 a cylo
15 04 1977 07.25 haverfwd dyfed uk 63 sr 38.20 a disc
19 04 1977 01.00 haverfwd dyfed uk 63 1100 38.20 a cen3
23 04 1977 00.83 haverfwd dyfed uk 63 1100 38.20 a cen3
25 06 1977 00.50 haverfwd dyfed uk 63 ss 38.20 a orgo
01 10 1977 20.25 haverfwd dyfed uk 63 ss 38.20 a gond
15 10 1977 10.00 haverfwd dyfed uk 63 sr 38.20 a exit

Please Note: Whilst every care has been taken to faithfully reproduce these tables, due to the type used on the originals, and the fact that it was considerably faded, the editor cannot guranteee absolute accuracy. There are no known errors, but if one should be discovered, please email the details to:


The above listings are no more than small samples of the processed output for over 800 cases. The evidence for a programmed surveillance activity, as provided by the current database, is overwhelming, in that a number of well-defined tactics have now been identified. It is suggested that this amounts to further validation of the Astronautical Theory. However, it should be remembered that there are two tracks required for the proposed delivery/retrieval sequence on each occasion and, usually, only one of the identified track options can satisfy the validation requirement of +/- 20 minutes of the reported time.

This means that some of the track options listed in the above correlations do not satisfy that validation criterion. Only a full study of the processed output for each case would identify the validating option because they satisfy the nominal +/- one hour selection boundaries imposed by the programme.

Although most of the cases compiled for the database have met the primary validation criterion ( +/- 20 minutes), during the compilation process, exceptions have been made when the circumstances have suggested that a reported event could have been the result of mission activities between arrival and departure.

These exceptions were made to enable any commonalities in possible deliver/retrieval tracks or track options to be recognised during prolonged targeting or particular locations.

It is hoped that study of the results presented here will produce a better understanding of the manner in which the programmed activities are being planned. It is also hoped that, given such insights, organised scientific observations of the activities will become possible in the near future. However, at present, most scientists seem to be content in their belief that such activities are impossibilities, so a major paradigm shift will be required before that dream can become reality.

Until then, the trials work must continue to be carried on by co-operative enthusiastic amateur groups and individuals....Their pioneering work, which already appears to be producing positive results, merits full recognition.



Ashpole, E.   "THE UFO PHENOMENA"  (Chapter 15)
Headline Book Publishing, London.   Hardback 1995.  Paperback 1996.


The important facilitating role played by a Canadian Internet user, UFO witness and CSETI researcher, who kindly supplied the 1996-97 data by post, is gratefully acknowledged.
That gratitude is also extended to Joe Trainor, the Internet UFO ROUNDUP editor, who has been the source of much of the information received.

Thanks are also due to all those individuals and groups who have provided the UFO sighting reports over the three decades of this study, especially the late Mr. Ken Phillips of BUFORA; to ex-members of the Computer Services Department of British Aerospace PLC, Woodford, Cheshire, who, in 1980, produced in spare time, invaluable computer graphics which assisted the development on the Astronautical Theory.

Thanks to Pike and Joyce Murphy ( Texas ) for their invaluable provision of detailed Time Zone information; and to all those voluntary organisations and groups involved in testing the predictions of the Theory in the "field" - notably CSETI (USA) and PEIR (Ireland.)

Just before this report came into being, information about the untimely death of Ms. Shari Adamiak, of Colorado, was received. As co-ordinator of CSETI activities, Ms. Adamiak provided an invaluable link with the CSETI and supplied regularly up-dated information.

Shari was an intrepid and enthusiastic in-the-field worker who had travelled the world to visit many UFO hot spots. In their attempts to make contact with the intelligences behind the UFO activity, CSETI investigators have willingly tested and, on several occasions, proved the effectiveness of the Astronautical Theory.